11057 Arnold Hwy · Jasper, MI 49248

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1950 1.75 ac lot $121/sqft · 76% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Wide open space
• Newer water heater

Tags

• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• WIDE OPEN SPACE
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• BRAND NEW FURNACE
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#548 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sand Creek Community Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #183 of 540 in MI (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ruth Mcgregor Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #200 of 1,397 statewide, top 16%, 357 students, 52% FRL); Sand Creek High School (math 22% / reading 39%, grade F, #426 of 713 statewide, top 60%, 425 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $130k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $542,407
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -76.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $41,848
• Equity at exit: $75,117

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $116,636
• Equity at exit: $130,855

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49248

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $377/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $203	+0% $166	+5% $129	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $120	+0% $166	+5% $213	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $199	base $166	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $130,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on market $130,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $140,000 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    listing id $140,000 Active 119 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 119 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 118 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 117 DOM
20. 2026-04-29
    price $140,000 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

21. 2026-04-28
    price $140,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you'll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

22. 2026-04-15
    price $145,000 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

23. 2026-04-14
    price $145,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you'll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

24. 2026-03-14
    price $150,000 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

25. 2026-03-13
    price $150,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you'll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

26. 2026-02-15
    status Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

27. 2026-02-15
    status Back on Market 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

28. 2026-02-12
    historical Active Under Contract 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

29. 2026-02-12
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

30. 2026-02-02
    listed $160,000 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

31. 2026-02-02
    listed $160,000 Active 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to 11057 Arnold Road in Jasper, MI! This charming 2-bedroom farmhouse sits on just under 2 acres, offering the perfect balance of peaceful country living and everyday convenience. The property features mature fruit trees, wide open space, and a 2-car garage ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful modern updates including replacement windows, a brand-new furnace, and a newer water heater. All appliances are included, making your move easy and stress-free. This is a wonderful opportunity to create your own private country retreat.

32. 2025-12-10
    historical
33. 2025-10-02
    listed $180,000 Active
34. 2025-10-02
    listed $180,000 Active
35. 2019-03-25
    soldstatus $65,000
36. 2019-03-20
    soldstatus $65,000 Sold
37. 2019-03-20
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed
38. 2019-03-15
    status Pending
39. 2019-03-15
    status Pending
40. 2019-03-08
    listed Contingent - Continue To Show
41. 2019-02-01
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
42. 2019-01-30
    price $99,900
43. 2018-12-26
    listed $99,900
44. 2018-12-26
    listed $114,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $377 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,189 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$813/yr (+$68/mo · 215.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$377
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$43
• After-tax cash flow: $2,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sand Creek Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2630780
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,367
• Composite: 36.01/100
• National rank: #4783
• State rank: #183 of 540 in MI

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #17201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 879

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.18%
• Current HPI: 217.4738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+40.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $140,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $140,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $145,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-15 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-15 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-12 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-12 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $160,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-02 Listed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $180,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $180,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-20 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-03-20 Sold (MLS) $65,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-03-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-03-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-03-08 Listed — REALCOMP
• 2019-02-01 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-01-30 Price Changed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-12-26 Listed $114,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-12-26 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $377 · -73.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.