20287 E Sierra Dr

Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$295,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,931/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$243
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-265/mo
• Annual: $-3,174/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (34.6% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $295k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.