20287 E Sierra Dr · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1999 0.26 ac lot Est $360k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OWC W/$70,000 DOWN, SELLER PREFERS FATCO - PV - FULL COVERED FRONT AND REA PATIOS ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLES, 2 X 6 CONSTRUCTION RV AREA, CERAMIC TILE UPGRADED CARPET AND KITCHEN CABINETS, LOADS OF STORAGE AND MORE 2 Car,Attached,RV

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County-maintained paved road frontage; Zoning: R1L; Subdivision: Cordes Lakes
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage; RV parking/garage available
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane (rent and available); Propane water heater; Septic (WWT - septic conventional); Other water utilities (per listing)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Double-pane windows; Built area approximately 1,692
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Concrete driveway; Front landscaping; Perimeter fencing; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom (total 2 bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Forced gas heating; Propane heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining combination; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer connection; Family room; Laundry room; Additional room (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connection; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $295k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,075 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,396
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15853 S Maverick Trl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+5%)	1mo	$274,900	$154	77
20100 E Mesa Verde Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,678 (-1%)	12mo	$359,000	$214	73
15318 S Cordes Lakes Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-5%)	3mo	$415,000	$257	72
20187 E Mingus Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-4%)	11mo	$265,000	$164	68
20187 E Ocotillo Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,834 (+8%)	11mo	$375,000	$204	67
20140 E Ocotillo Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,856 (+10%)	10mo	$395,000	$213	63
15630 S Oasis Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-10%)	16mo	$385,000	$254	60
20558 E Mesa Verde Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-4%)	7mo	$320,000	$196	57
15869 S Chestnut Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-14%)	10mo	$279,900	$192	56
20002 E Zaragoza Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-13%)	12mo	$320,000	$217	48
19981 E Zaragoza Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-11%)	14mo	$310,000	$207	48
19680 E Ironwood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-12%)	12mo	$330,000	$221	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $143,693
• Equity at exit: $265,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $436,154
• Equity at exit: $573,120

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,439/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $248,269

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $295,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active Under Contract 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active Under Contract 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active Under Contract 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active Under Contract 65 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2026-04-16
    price $295,000
18. 2026-03-26
    listed $299,000 Active
19. 1999-06-23
    soldstatus $106,500 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    OWC W/$70,000 DOWN, SELLER PREFERS FATCO - PV - FULL COVERED FRONT AND REA PATIOS ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLES, 2 X 6 CONSTRUCTION RV AREA, CERAMIC TILE UPGRADED CARPET AND KITCHEN CABINETS, LOADS OF STORAGE AND MORE 2 Car,Attached,RV

20. 1999-06-22
    soldstatus $106,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,947 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 35.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,439
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$8,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,054
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+177.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $295,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $299,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-23 Sold (MLS) $106,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $106,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,439 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.