6117 Valley View St #22

Joshua Tree, CA 92252

$35,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 1965 · Manufactured · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,482/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $929/mo
• Annual: $11,143/yr
• Cap rate: 38.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 113.70%
• DSCR: 6.06
• 1% rule: 4.23%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $929 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $32k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,114 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Joshua Tree Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,340 of 1,571 statewide, top 88%, 276 students, 78% FRL); La Contenta Middle (math 11% / reading 27%, grade F, #426 of 498 statewide, top 86%, 650 students, 72% FRL); Yucca Valley High (math 15% / reading 49%, grade F, #674 of 1,170 statewide, top 59%, 1,264 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 535 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 38.1% vs local median 2.7% in Joshua Tree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.