Clayton 183 River Valley Estates Plan

Marion, OH 43302

$136,507C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 279 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,527/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $263/mo
• Annual: $3,159/yr
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $38,222

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $944 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• River Valley Local (rural): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #264 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 6.9% in Marion — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Severe wear and tear visible on the exterior siding.
• Major: roof — Signs of significant damage or wear on the roof.
• Major: interior walls/paint — Severe discoloration and damage to interior walls and paint.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt landscaping with no visible curb appeal.
• Major: windows — No photos of the windows, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.