Clayton 183 River Valley Estates Plan · Marion, OH 43302

$136,507

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 279 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Coming Soon. Be the very first to live in this stunning 2025 Clayton home, perfectly situated in a peaceful and quiet community just north of the city of Marion. The heart of the home is a fully funtional, chef ready kitchen featuring brand new appliances, including: A refrigerator, A gas stove, A built in microwave and A dishwasher, 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Spaucious and modern living. Please call River Valley Estates office for more information.

Key facts

• Brand new appliances
• Chef ready kitchen
• Listed 278 days

Tags

• CHEF READY KITCHEN
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 6.9% in Marion — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• River Valley Local (rural): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #264 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $944 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $120,126 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,331
• Equity at exit: $20,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $17,041
• Equity at exit: $11,803

Cash invested: $38,222 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43302

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$171 /mo · $2,048/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $136,507

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,127
• Closing costs: $4,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $136,507 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,799 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,799 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,799 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,799 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $157,799 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $157,799 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $157,799 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,799 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $157,799 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $157,799 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $157,799 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $157,799 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,799 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $157,799 Active 259 DOM
16. 2025-09-14
    listed $157,799 Active 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    Coming Soon. Be the very first to live in this stunning 2025 Clayton home, perfectly situated in a peaceful and quiet community just north of the city of Marion. The heart of the home is a fully funtional, chef ready kitchen featuring brand new appliances, including: A refrigerator, A gas stove, A built in microwave and A dishwasher, 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Spaucious and modern living. Please call River Valley Estates office for more information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,647
• − Property taxes: −$2,048
• − Insurance: −$683
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$3,971
• Taxable income: $1,048
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$252
• After-tax cash flow: $2,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home is in poor condition with extensive repairs and maintenance needed across all systems and areas. Significant improvements are required to bring it up to a livable standard.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe wear and tear visible on the exterior siding.
• Major roof — Signs of significant damage or wear on the roof.
• Major interior walls/paint — Severe discoloration and damage to interior walls and paint.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt landscaping with no visible curb appeal.
• Major windows — No photos of the windows, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major flooring — No photos of the flooring, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major kitchen appliances — No photos of the kitchen, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the exterior siding would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both roof repair — Repairing the roof would improve the home's structural integrity and increase its value.
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Repairing the interior walls and paint would improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both HVAC/mechanical replacement — Replacing the HVAC/mechanical system would improve the home's comfort and increase its value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal would increase the home's appeal and increase its value.
• Both kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms would improve the home's functionality and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe wear and tear visible on the exterior siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Signs of significant damage or wear on the roof.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Severe discoloration and damage to interior walls and paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt landscaping with no visible curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No photos of the windows, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos of the flooring, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen appliances · No photos of the kitchen, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the exterior siding would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both roof repair — Repairing the roof would improve the home's structural integrity and increase its value. ↑
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Repairing the interior walls and paint would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanical replacement — Replacing the HVAC/mechanical system would improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal would increase the home's appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms would improve the home's functionality and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: River Valley Local
• NCES district ID: 3904844
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,645
• Composite: 52.44/100
• National rank: #1574
• State rank: #264 of 656 in OH

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #12605

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 53,702 people
• City population: 53,702
• Metro: Marion, OH
• Population (ZIP): 53,702
• Household income: $55,057
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1554.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,078 people
• By 2030: 60,049 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 50,604 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 40,162 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 29,105 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.4) · D 28.9% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -41.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.4 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+7.6 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.52%
• Current HPI: 223.5344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marion, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-14 Listed $157,799 Zillow