1121 Tarkiln Rd SE #109

Lancaster, OH 43130

$84,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 179 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,597/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$430
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $245/mo
• Annual: $2,940/yr
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.37%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#41 in OH, #423 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D.
• Berne Union Local (rural): math 63% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #321 of 802 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 475 units permitted in Fairfield County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfield County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.0% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.