1784-1788 Union St

San Francisco, CA 94123

$2,595,000D

None bd · None ba · 4,950 sqft · Built 1902 · Other · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,084/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,608
• Tax + insurance: −$4,325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$858
• Net cashflow: $-14,707/mo
• Annual: $-176,486/yr
• Cap rate: -0.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.29%
• DSCR: -0.08
• 1% rule: 0.16%
• Cash to close: $726,600

Investor read

• This is a other listed at $2.60M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15k ($-176k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $467k (82.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $408k (84.3% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.52M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $408k (84.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $230k of equity ($18k loan paydown + $212k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 59 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$369k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate -0.5% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 84% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.