1784-1788 Union St · San Francisco, CA 94123

$2,595,000

None bd · None ba · 4,950 sqft · Other · 45 Days on market

Built 1902 2,125 sqft lot $524/sqft · 17% below area Est $3109k · 17% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property subject to court confirmation. 3 unit building, top floor vacant unit, renovations needed, projected rental value $7500, middle unit, tenant occupied, current $3,875. protected tenant. Lower unit, commercial unit, $4,000, on month to month lease.

Key facts

• 2,125 sq ft lot
• Built 1902
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Triplex with three units total — two leased, one month-to-month, one vacant (projected rent $7,500 for the vacant unit); Includes a commercial unit on month-to-month tenancy
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Home design: Residential income property (Mixed-use triplex); Three or more levels; Built in 1902
• Construction: Original condition — fixer; Assessor-reported building area 4,950 square feet
• Exterior features: Balcony / deck

Interior

• Flooring: Wood
• Interior features: Wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a other listed at $2.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15k ($-176k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $467k (82.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $408k (84.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $408k (84.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.5% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 59 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $230k of equity ($18k loan paydown + $212k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$369k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.52M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $408,396 (84.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 84% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.16% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.29%
• DSCR: -0.08
• GRM: 53.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,109,274
• List price: $2,595,000
• Delta: -16.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.18% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $183,326
• Equity at exit: $2,002,762

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $1,283,756
• Equity at exit: $4,005,660

Cash invested: $726,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94123

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 53.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,244 /mo · $38,925/yr
• Insurance: −$1,081
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$858
• Net cashflow: $-14,707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $22,701

Max offer price $466,855

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $648,750
• Closing costs: $77,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,595,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,595,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,595,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,595,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,595,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $2,595,000 Active 255-char remark
16. 2019-08-28
    historical Canceled
17. 2019-08-02
    price $2,649,000
18. 2019-06-27
    listed $2,750,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$145,360
• − Property taxes: −$38,925
• − Insurance: −$12,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,921
• − Management: −$3,921
• − Depreciation: −$75,491
• Taxable loss: −$231,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$55,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-120,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 24,054
• Household income: $218,603
• Rent vs Own: 69.6% rent · 30.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Asian 11% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.18%
• Current HPI: 212.9289
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.17%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $2,595,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2019-08-28 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $2,649,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2019-06-27 Listed $2,750,000 San Francisco MLS