502 Warren St

Fayetteville, NY 13066

$149,900B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 985 sqft · Built 1840 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,940/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $331/mo
• Annual: $3,973/yr
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.47%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#71 in NY, #1,067 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Fayetteville-Manlius Central School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #49 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $150k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.1% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.