502 Warren St · Fayetteville, NY 13066

$149,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 985 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1840 10,019 sqft lot Est $162k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming and unique home nestled in the heart of the Village of Fayetteville, located within the highly sought-after Fayetteville-Manlius School District. Offering 985 square feet of living space, this 1-bedroom, 1-bath residence w/ 2nd floor loft, blends character, functionality, and opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a versatile layout with a cozy loft area—perfect for additional living space or a creative retreat—as well as a dedicated small office ideal for remote work or hobbies. The convenience of first-floor laundry adds to the home’s practicality. Step outside to enjoy the inviting covered front porch, a perfect spot to relax and take in the nei

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Cozy loft area
• First-floor laundry

Tags

• COZY LOFT AREA
• DEDICATED SMALL OFFICE
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• MINUTES FROM LOCAL SCHOOLS
• MINUTES FROM RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.1% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#71 in NY, #1,067 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Fayetteville-Manlius Central School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #49 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $150k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.47%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,540
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Warren St	0.00mi	1/1.0	985 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$152	100
105 Beach St	0.20mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,032 (+5%)	11mo	$247,500	$240	67
110 Warner Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,009 (+2%)	14mo	$165,000	$164	57
152 N Burdick St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,110 (+13%)	0mo	$90,000	$81	42
210 S Burdick St	0.39mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,076 (+9%)	20mo	$222,000	$206	42
148 N Burdick St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+8%)	24mo	$170,000	$160	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,072
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $25,010
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13066

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,233/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-20
   listed $149,900 Active
4. 2012-06-20
   soldstatus $90,000
5. 1996-04-11
   soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,233 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,233 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$4,233
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $3,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayetteville-Manlius Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618330
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $86,156
• Composite: 71.12/100
• National rank: #238
• State rank: #49 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #1067

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NY
• City population: 12,680
• Population (ZIP): 12,680

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 319.9702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+455.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2012-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,233 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.