153 Whispering Winds Dr

Gunter, TX 75058

$425,000A

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,500 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$1,111
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,428
• Net cashflow: $2,003/mo
• Annual: $24,037/yr
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.20%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $425k).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $374k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#236 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gunter ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #103 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 1.9% in Gunter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.