19202 N Pierson Rd

Peoria, AZ 85373

$99,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 648 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$28
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $709/mo
• Annual: $8,512/yr
• Cap rate: 14.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.43%
• DSCR: 2.35
• 1% rule: 1.69%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Zuni Hills Elementary School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #394 of 1,109 statewide, top 36%, 880 students, 19% FRL); Sunrise Mountain High School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 2,018 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools average 17% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $100k implies a 1327% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.