19202 N Pierson Rd · Peoria, AZ 85373

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 648 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1980 6,582 sqft lot $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special! Step into instant equity with this fixer upper. ALL OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED. New exterior stucco and interior sub flooring. New windows.

Key facts

• Exterior stucco
• New windows
• 6,582 sq ft lot

Tags

• EXTERIOR STUCCO
• INTERIOR SUB FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 6,582 (assessor)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $28 covering grounds maintenance; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 open parking space; 1 garage space
• Utilities: City water; Septic tank / septic connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Other construction materials; Building area per owner
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and back yard; No fencing; Tile roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl frame windows; Laundry inside
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Zuni Hills Elementary School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #394 of 1,109 statewide, top 36%, 880 students, 19% FRL); Sunrise Mountain High School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 2,018 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools average 17% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $100k implies a 1327% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.40%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $28,925
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $83,235
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85373

• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $367/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $790

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10134 W Mohawk Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,299	$1.57	44d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $109,900 Active
2. 1979-01-10
   soldstatus $7,000
3. 1978-04-20
   soldstatus $6,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 79.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$367
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $7,299
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,752
• After-tax cash flow: $6,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 20,254
• Household income: $72,063
• Rent vs Own: 11.6% rent · 88.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.80%
• Current HPI: 261.3749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1658.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $109,900 ARMLS
• 1979-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 1978-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $6,250 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $367 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.