12718 Ashbury Dr

Rogers, MN 55374

$319,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,665 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-161/mo
• Annual: $-1,936/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $89,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (18.9% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $259k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#326 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Rogers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.