12718 Ashbury Dr · Rogers, MN 55374

$319,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience townhome life in the Finley, a two-level, three-bedroom new townhome plan offered at Big Woods in Rogers, Minnesota. The townhomes have a charming and modern exterior in multiple color packages to keep the curb appeal a positive experience in the community. This home features stunning pond views. Irrigation is included to help keep your grass green all summer long. This plan opens with a roomy foyer, and transitions to the open-concept main level which integrates the kitchen and living room. The Finley's kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The outdoors is easily accessible on the kitchen-adjacent concrete patio. Three bedrooms are on the upper lev

Key facts

• Pond views
• Quartz double vanity
• Smart home products

Tags

• POND VIEWS
• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• WALK IN CLOSET
• QUARTZ DOUBLE VANITY
• SMART HOME PRODUCTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Last updated: 2026-06-11
• Financial info: List price $319,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family residence (spec-built)
• Exterior features: Located at 12718 Ashbury Dr, Rogers MN 55374; Living area approximately 1665

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (FINLEY plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Rogers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#326 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $259,498 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-62,089
• Equity at exit: $47,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-67,139
• Equity at exit: $27,667

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55374

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $296,643

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,998
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12724 Ashbury Dr Rogers, MN	4.0	3.0	1820	$2,775	$1.52	4d	1	0.04mi
13625 Busch Ln Unit 1 Rogers, MN	3.0	3.0	1667	$2,640	$1.58	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,990 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $319,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,924
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,794
• After-tax cash flow: $-142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is durable
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is durable ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rogers

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #7371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rogers, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 16,661
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 16,661
• Household income: $144,714
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 32.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.53%
• Current HPI: 230.7463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B