649 Linda Johnson Ave

El Paso, TX 79932

$231,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,948/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax + insurance: −$538
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-215/mo
• Annual: $-2,585/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $64,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (16.0% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Canutillo ISD (other): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gonzalo And Sofia Garcia El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 466 students, 63% FRL); Canutillo Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 700 students, 64% FRL); Canutillo H S (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,642 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.