649 Linda Johnson Ave · El Paso, TX 79932

$231,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2004 4,827 sqft lot $186/sqft · 19% below area Est $285k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained home located in the highly desirable Upper Valley area of El Paso. This charming property offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and a welcoming atmosphere perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from I-10 and approximately 5 minutes from Santa Teresa, providing quick access to shopping, dining, and major roadways while still enjoying the tranquility of the Upper Valley. A wonderful opportunity to own a home in one of El Paso's most sought-after areas. Schedule your tour and see it for yourself!

Key facts

• 4,827 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• QUICK ACCESS TO DINING
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Canutillo ISD (other): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gonzalo And Sofia Garcia El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 466 students, 63% FRL); Canutillo Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 700 students, 64% FRL); Canutillo H S (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,642 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,940 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,143
• List price: $231,999
• Delta: -18.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-47,134
• Equity at exit: $34,592

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-40,852
• Equity at exit: $20,059

Cash invested: $64,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79932

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,293/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $193,940

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-150	+0% $-215	+5% $-281	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-369	-5% $-292	+0% $-215	+5% $-138	+10% $-62
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-156	base $-215	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,000
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
701 Linda Johnson El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	45d	1	0.13mi
836 Sunset Park Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1742	$2,295	$1.32	5d	1	0.60mi
916 Keenland Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,285	$1.23	45d	1	0.85mi
909 Ada Ln El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,285	$1.23	45d	1	0.85mi
5960 Mohegan Sun St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1632	$2,250	$1.38	45d	1	0.88mi
6528 Hoop St Unit A El Paso, TX	2.0	2.5	1307	$1,600	$1.22	13d	1	0.94mi
6537 Hoop St Unit A El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$1,600	$1.19	13d	1	0.97mi
5941 Sixta Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,400	$1.15	21d	1	0.98mi
6533 Toivoa Pl El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,250	$1.54	15d	1	1.02mi
1072 Haper Ct El Paso, TX	2.0	2.5	1622	$1,825	$1.13	13d	1	1.04mi
5973 Cartagena Cir El Paso, TX	2.0	2.0	1800	$2,100	$1.17	13d	1	1.38mi
299 Leslie Ct Unit B El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	25d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-16
   historical Active Under Contract 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home located in the highly desirable Upper Valley area of El Paso. This charming property offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and a welcoming atmosphere perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from I-10 and approximately 5 minutes from Santa Teresa, providing quick access to shopping, dining, and major roadways while still enjoying the tranquility of the Upper Valley. A wonderful opportunity to own a home in one of El Paso's most sought-after areas. Schedule your tour and see it for yourself!

2. 2026-04-17
   price $231,999 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home located in the highly desirable Upper Valley area of El Paso. This charming property offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and a welcoming atmosphere perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from I-10 and approximately 5 minutes from Santa Teresa, providing quick access to shopping, dining, and major roadways while still enjoying the tranquility of the Upper Valley. A wonderful opportunity to own a home in one of El Paso's most sought-after areas. Schedule your tour and see it for yourself!

3. 2026-03-24
   status Active 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home located in the highly desirable Upper Valley area of El Paso. This charming property offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and a welcoming atmosphere perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from I-10 and approximately 5 minutes from Santa Teresa, providing quick access to shopping, dining, and major roadways while still enjoying the tranquility of the Upper Valley. A wonderful opportunity to own a home in one of El Paso's most sought-after areas. Schedule your tour and see it for yourself!

4. 2026-03-23
   historical Active Under Contract 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home located in the highly desirable Upper Valley area of El Paso. This charming property offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and a welcoming atmosphere perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from I-10 and approximately 5 minutes from Santa Teresa, providing quick access to shopping, dining, and major roadways while still enjoying the tranquility of the Upper Valley. A wonderful opportunity to own a home in one of El Paso's most sought-after areas. Schedule your tour and see it for yourself!

5. 2026-03-05
   listed $234,990 Active 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home located in the highly desirable Upper Valley area of El Paso. This charming property offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and a welcoming atmosphere perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from I-10 and approximately 5 minutes from Santa Teresa, providing quick access to shopping, dining, and major roadways while still enjoying the tranquility of the Upper Valley. A wonderful opportunity to own a home in one of El Paso's most sought-after areas. Schedule your tour and see it for yourself!

6. 2023-11-07
   soldstatus
7. 2023-10-10
   status Pending
8. 2023-09-29
   listed $199,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,293 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,293 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,996
• − Property taxes: −$5,293
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable loss: −$6,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,575
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canutillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812780
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,327
• Composite: 28.91/100
• National rank: #6636
• State rank: #542 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Paso, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,786
• Household income: $78,277
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 79% Two or more races 31% White 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 62% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.39%
• Current HPI: 232.2077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $231,999 GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $234,990 GEPARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-10 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listed $199,500 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,293 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.