554 Fairlawn Ave

Painesville, OH 44077

$115,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 936 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,225/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $179/mo
• Annual: $2,152/yr
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.68%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#360 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Painesville City Local (suburban): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #577 of 656 in OH (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elm Street Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,158 of 1,584 statewide, top 75%, 433 students, 0% FRL); Heritage Middle School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #588 of 654 statewide, top 90%, 560 students, 0% FRL); Harvey High School (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #619 of 781 statewide, top 80%, 832 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 76% district-wide (76 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 275 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 448 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $115k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Painesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.