554 Fairlawn Ave · Painesville, OH 44077

$115,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1930 4,639 sqft lot Est $119k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,639 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed ($1,647 for 2025)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property; 936 above-grade finished area (per listing source)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Full, unfinished basement; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.9% in Painesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#360 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Painesville City Local (suburban): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #577 of 656 in OH (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 448 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $115k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.68%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,872
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
783 North Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	948 (+1%)	10mo	$195,000	$206	73
191 Mathews St	0.57mi	3/1.0	956 (+2%)	2mo	$55,000	$58	67
832 North Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	864 (-8%)	7mo	$110,100	$127	62
863 North	0.42mi	3/1.0	842 (-10%)	1mo	$116,095	$138	61
845 Hine Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,014 (+8%)	14mo	$85,000	$84	53
199 Mathews St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-9%)	1mo	$50,000	$59	51
811 Hine Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (+14%)	15mo	$144,000	$135	41
586 Williams St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+14%)	23mo	$133,500	$125	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-6,356
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $12,739
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44077

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,647/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
244 E Prospect St Painesville, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	2d	1	0.55mi
1059 Richmond Rd Painesville, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$1,200	$1.92	2d	1	0.85mi
45 W High St Apt 211 Painesville, OH	2.0	1.0	665	$855	$1.29	44d	1	0.94mi
551 W Jackson St Unit RFV A201 Painesville, OH	2.0	1.0	860	$1,045	$1.22	44d	1	0.94mi
48 Pearl St Painesville, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 2004-05-07
   soldstatus $63,000
4. 1989-07-25
   soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,647
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$81
• After-tax cash flow: $2,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Painesville City Local
• NCES district ID: 3910015
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $35,381
• Composite: 26.03/100
• National rank: #7309
• State rank: #577 of 656 in OH

Livability — Painesville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #5785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Painesville, OH
• County: Lake County · 204,927 people
• City population: 57,325
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 57,325
• Household income: $85,056
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1333.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,022 people
• By 2030: 228,151 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 221,018 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 212,754 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 200,309 · -12.9%
• By 2100: 183,315 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.7 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.05%
• Current HPI: 181.2976
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+858.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-30 Listed $115,000 MLSNOW
• 2004-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,647 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.