96 Bellecrest Ave

East Northport, NY 11731

$930,000D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,339 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 268 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,877
• Tax + insurance: −$2,184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,512
• Net cashflow: $-1,373/mo
• Annual: $-16,476/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $260,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $930k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $687k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $720k (22.6% below list).
• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($818k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $687k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in NY, #3,199 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Northport-East Northport Union Free School District (suburban): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #101 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $183k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $325k; list at $930k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in East Northport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.