The McGinnis Plan

Margaret, AL 35120

$283,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,014/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,561
• Tax + insurance: −$496
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-466/mo
• Annual: $-5,591/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $83,355

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (29.0% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#166 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• St Clair County (rural): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #33 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Margaret Elementary (math 29% / reading 57%, grade F, #204 of 627 statewide, top 33%, 727 students, 58% FRL); Odenville Middle School (math 7% / reading 51%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 570 students, 67% FRL); Saint Clair County High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 622 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 427 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.