The McGinnis Plan · Margaret, AL 35120

$283,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

• Access to the yard
• Walk-in closets
• Wide entry

Tags

• WIDE ENTRY
• TRADITIONAL DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM
• ACCESS TO THE YARD
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $283,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,695.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#166 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• St Clair County (rural): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #33 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Margaret Elementary (math 29% / reading 57%, grade F, #204 of 627 statewide, top 33%, 727 students, 58% FRL); Odenville Middle School (math 7% / reading 51%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 570 students, 67% FRL); Saint Clair County High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 622 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 427 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,442 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,695
• List price: $283,900
• Delta: -4.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
378 Andrew Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,368 (-0%)	0mo	$282,500	$119	72
2025 Sterling Grove Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,372 (0%)	1mo	$311,120	$131	70
1655 Sterling Grove Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,372 (0%)	2mo	$284,780	$120	69
1630 Sterling Grove Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,053 (-13%)	4mo	$282,000	$137	68
129 Horton Dr	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,410 (+2%)	2mo	$356,000	$148	60
735 Brookhaven Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,385 (+0%)	3mo	$352,500	$148	57
1660 Sterling Grove Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,565 (+8%)	2mo	$334,840	$131	55
1705 Sterling Grove Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-6%)	1mo	$289,075	$130	55
2055 Sterling Cir	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-6%)	0mo	$296,445	$133	54
2035 Sterling Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,053 (-13%)	1mo	$288,840	$141	41
1695 Sterling Grove Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,053 (-13%)	2mo	$271,715	$132	40
2065 Sterling Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,053 (-13%)	0mo	$282,254	$137	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-82,846
• Equity at exit: $44,387

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-129,595
• Equity at exit: $25,739

Cash invested: $83,355 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 48 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.1 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $284,425 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 90 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 35120

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,561
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,465/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,604

Max offer price $230,277

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-260	-5% $-363	+0% $-466	+5% $-569	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-625	-5% $-545	+0% $-466	+5% $-386	+10% $-307
Rate	-1.0pp $-316	-0.5pp $-390	base $-466	+0.5pp $-543	+1.0pp $-622

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,424
• Closing costs: $8,931
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
235 Sterling Pl Odenville, AL	3.0	2.0	1752	$1,636	$0.93	65d	1	0.57mi
710 Small Lake Rd Odenville, AL	4.0	3.0	2433	$2,295	$0.94	6d	1	0.71mi
111 Bates Ln Moody, AL	4.0	2.0	1802	$1,890	$1.05	0d	1	0.88mi
584 Woodland Ridge Rd Odenville, AL	3.0	2.0	2300	$1,995	$0.87	0d	1	0.88mi
1300 Brookhaven Dr Odenville, AL	4.0	2.0	1620	$1,850	$1.14	62d	1	0.95mi
1245 Brookhaven Dr Odenville, AL	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,795	$1.11	9d	1	0.95mi
1325 Brookhaven Dr Odenville, AL	4.0	3.0	2091	$1,736	$0.83	0d	1	0.98mi
1385 Brookhaven Dr Odenville, AL	3.0	2.5	1804	$1,663	$0.92	0d	1	1.01mi
1540 Brookhaven Dr Odenville, AL	4.0	3.0	2091	$1,950	$0.93	0d	1	1.03mi
670 Ridgefield Dr Odenville, AL	4.0	3.0	1817	$1,806	$0.99	4d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price noted (buyer to verify)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air (power from electric)
• Home design: New construction plan named The McGinnisPlan inventory type
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing year implied)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,372 (per plan)Address: Odenville, AL (Sterling Grove Dr)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas, electric, and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan home)

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-07-13
   days on market $283,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $283,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-07-11
   days on market $283,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-07-10
   days on market $283,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-07-09
   days on market $283,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-07-07
   days on market $283,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-07-06
   days on market $283,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-07-05
   days on market $283,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-07-03
   days on market $283,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $283,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-07-01
    days on market $280,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-30
    days on market $280,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-29
    days on market $280,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-28
    days on market $280,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-27
    days on market $280,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-06-27
    days on market $280,900 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-06-25
    days on market $280,900 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-06-22
    days on market $280,900 Active 44 DOM
19. 2026-06-22
    days on market $280,900 Active 43 DOM
20. 2026-06-18
    days on market $280,900 Active 40 DOM
21. 2026-06-17
    days on market $280,900 Active 39 DOM
22. 2026-06-16
    days on market $280,900 Active 38 DOM
23. 2026-06-15
    days on market $280,900 Active 37 DOM
24. 2026-06-13
    days on market $280,900 Active 35 DOM
25. 2026-06-10
    days on market $280,900 Active 32 DOM
26. 2026-06-09
    days on market $280,900 Active 31 DOM
27. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,900 Active 30 DOM
28. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,900 Active 29 DOM
29. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,900 Active 25 DOM
30. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,900 Active 24 DOM
31. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,900 Active 23 DOM
32. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,900 Active 22 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,676
• − Property taxes: −$4,465
• − Insurance: −$1,488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$8,660
• Taxable loss: −$10,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,636
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The McGinnis Plan is a well-maintained two-story home with good curb appeal and interior finishes. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances the overall look and feel of the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Margaret Elementary F AL #204/627 Nat'l #17,525/41,679 Middle Odenville Middle School F AL #134/257 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Saint Clair County High School F AL #169/305 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St Clair County
• NCES district ID: 0103062
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,324
• Composite: 31.79/100
• National rank: #5887
• State rank: #33 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Margaret

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #14543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Margaret, AL
• County: Saint Clair County · 94,158 people
• City population: 71
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 17,730
• Household income: $74,352
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,158 people
• By 2030: 97,008 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 101,615 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 104,537 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 109,350 · +16.1%
• By 2100: 106,785 · +13.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.1) · D 17.6% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -63.2pp · 2024: -64.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.1 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+68.6 2012: R+66.1 2008: R+63.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.39%
• Current HPI: 175.5104
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price noted (buyer to verify)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air (power from electric)
• Home design: New construction plan named The McGinnisPlan inventory type
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing year implied)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,372 (per plan)Address: Odenville, AL (Sterling Grove Dr)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas, electric, and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan home)