8 Orchard St

Holley, NY 14470

$129,900B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · Built 1885 · MultiFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,428/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$457
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $780/mo
• Annual: $9,355/yr
• Cap rate: 13.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.72%
• DSCR: 2.14
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $260/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 4.4% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.