8 Orchard St · Holley, NY 14470

$129,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1885 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This 3-unit home offers immediate income potential with the flexibility for future owner-occupancy, as all units are currently leased on a month-to-month basis. The property features two spacious one-bedroom units and one studio apartment, totaling 1,516 sq ft of living space across the building. The upstairs unit has been recently updated, offering modern appeal to tenants, while two units boast newer windows for improved energy efficiency. Two of the three units also enjoy private outdoor porches — a great amenity that helps attract and retain quality tenants. Major systems have been thoughtfully maintained: the roof is just 5 years old, and the basement sewer hookup has been recent

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1885

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property contains 3 total units; Each unit has separate gas and electric meters (3 separate gas meters, 3 separate electric meters); Operating expenses include insurance and water/sewer; Owner pays snow removal and water; rent includes snow removal and water; Stated rents by unit: $650, $450, $300

Exterior

• Parking: Common gravel parking with two or more spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story multi-unit property; Resale condition
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation; Existing (year built details indicate existing structure)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Units include eat-in kitchen(s)
• Bedrooms: Three 1-bedroom units (unit mix includes 1-bedroom layouts)
• Flooring: Carpet and varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Each unit has one full bathroom (total of 3 full bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Baseboard heating; Forced air; Space heater
• Interior features: Some rooms have carpet; flooring varies; Other interior features noted (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $260/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 4.4% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.72%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $28,785
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $89,748
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14470

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,839/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,441

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $816	+0% $780	+5% $743	+10% $706
Rent	-10% $588	-5% $684	+0% $780	+5% $875	+10% $971
Rate	-1.0pp $845	-0.5pp $813	base $780	+0.5pp $746	+1.0pp $712

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	1	1	$2,427
Total (3 units)			$2,428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 469-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $129,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,839 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,839 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$4,839
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $7,931
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,903
• After-tax cash flow: $7,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,177
• Composite: 35.13/100
• National rank: #5013
• State rank: #505 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #13281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holley, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,765

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.80%
• Current HPI: 287.9167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,839 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.