56 Ball Rd

Warwick, NY 10990

$395,000C-

8 bd · 1.0 ba · 4,741 sqft · Built 1865 · SingleFamily · Pending · 561 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,935/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$826
• Net cashflow: $379/mo
• Annual: $4,551/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.11%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $394k (0.4% below list).
• It's been on market 561 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $348k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#282 in NY, #4,514 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Warwick Valley Central School District (town): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #118 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sanfordville Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 794 students, 16% FRL); Warwick Valley Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 1,082 students, 0% FRL); Warwick Valley High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,366 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1865 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.8% in Warwick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 561 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1865 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.