56 Ball Rd · Warwick, NY 10990

$395,000

8 bd · 1.0 ba · 4,741 sqft · SingleFamily · 561 Days on market

Built 1865 1.15 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ball Farm Homestead represents the splendor of the 19th century in historic Warwick. Construction began during the Civil War and was finally completed in 1865. This four-story Grand Dame is waiting for the history lover that wants to restore her to her original magnificence. Features include original unpainted woodwork, marble fireplace surrounds, central halls with substantial hardwood railings and cut stone foundation. Ideal for a bed & breakfast or quaint country hotel.

Key facts

• Cut stone foundation
• Marble fireplace
• Original woodwork

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• MARBLE FIREPLACE
• CUT STONE FOUNDATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax year 2023

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric service: Orange & Rockland; Sewer: Cesspool; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Four stories; Living area per public records; Property listed in actual condition
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other foundation details
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling; No conventional heating specified (other/none)
• Interior features: Three or more levels; Full, unfinished basement; Full attic; 14 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $394k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $348k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.8% in Warwick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#282 in NY, #4,514 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Warwick Valley Central School District (town): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #118 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sanfordville Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 794 students, 16% FRL); Warwick Valley Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 1,082 students, 0% FRL); Warwick Valley High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,366 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 561 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1865 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $347,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 561 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1865 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.11%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-39,792
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-3,305
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10990

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,935 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,925/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$826
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,455

Max offer price $395,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   status Active
3. 2026-04-01
   historical
4. 2025-08-22
   price $395,000
5. 2024-10-10
   listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$5,925
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,778
• − Management: −$3,778
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$443
• After-tax cash flow: $4,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629970
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,288
• Composite: 62.39/100
• National rank: #692
• State rank: #118 of 590 in NY

Livability — Warwick

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #4514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 20,368
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 20,368
• Household income: $125,870
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 563.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.68%
• Current HPI: 287.3366
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-10 Listed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid