33577 BROWNS LANDING RD Ext

Lillian, AL 36574

$275,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,290 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-475/mo
• Annual: $-5,702/yr
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.41%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (30.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (46.2% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (46.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elsanor School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #171 of 627 statewide, top 31%, 362 students, 69% FRL); Central Baldwin Middle School (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #101 of 257 statewide, top 40%, 757 students, 74% FRL); Robertsdale High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #53 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,450 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 38% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $275k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.