33577 BROWNS LANDING RD Ext · Lillian, AL 36574

$275,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1965 0.90 ac lot $120/sqft · 24% below area Est $360k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the rare opportunity to own parcel of deep-water frontage on beautiful Styx River! Option to purchase PIN 27459, offering hundreds of feet of waterfront, exceptional privacy, and limitless potential. The home itself needs a little love, but with the right vision it could be transformed into an incredible riverfront retreat. The property already features fantastic amenities, including a pool and two sizable boat slips—previously accommodating a 14 ft and 28 ft boat—perfect for boating, fishing, and riverfront living. In addition, three storage buildings convey with the property, measured at 8’ x 12’, 16’ x 16’, and 12’ x 30’, providin

Key facts

• Pool
• Two boat slips
• Deep-water frontage

Tags

• DEEP-WATER FRONTAGE
• WATERFRONT
• POOL
• TWO BOAT SLIPS
• THREE STORAGE BUILDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No transfer fees; No community features

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Electric service: Baldwin EMC; Gas-Propane
• Home design: Attached property; Two levels; Resale
• Construction: Built with block and other materials (see remarks); Pillar/post/pier foundation; Metal roof; Whole/Full ownership
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Side porch; In-ground private pool; Boat dock with water depth 4 ft+; Riverfront on the Styx River; Has view; Lot size approximately 1–3 acres; 415 ft waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Propane available
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (30.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (46.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (46.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elsanor School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #171 of 627 statewide, top 31%, 362 students, 69% FRL); Central Baldwin Middle School (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #101 of 257 statewide, top 40%, 757 students, 74% FRL); Robertsdale High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #53 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,450 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 38% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $275k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,002 (46.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.41%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,167
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -23.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $3,452
• Equity at exit: $124,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $53,665
• Equity at exit: $192,350

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36574

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,052/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $191,058

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-320	-5% $-397	+0% $-475	+5% $-553	+10% $-631
Rent	-10% $-592	-5% $-534	+0% $-475	+5% $-417	+10% $-358
Rate	-1.0pp $-337	-0.5pp $-405	base $-475	+0.5pp $-546	+1.0pp $-619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $275,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $275,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-05
    listed $275,000 Active 1048-char remark
12. 2026-04-14
    price $495,000
13. 2026-04-06
    price $595,000
14. 2026-03-03
    price $619,900
15. 2026-02-19
    price $639,900
16. 2026-01-27
    price $649,900
17. 2025-12-17
    price $699,900
18. 2025-11-20
    listed $750,000 Active
19. 1997-08-15
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,052 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,128 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,052
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$10,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,619
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 1,526

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2% Danish 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.05%
• Current HPI: 315.2239
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+129.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $275,000 BCAR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $495,000 BCAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $595,000 BCAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $619,900 BCAR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $639,900 BCAR
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $649,900 BCAR
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $699,900 BCAR
• 2025-11-20 Listed $750,000 BCAR
• 1997-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,052 · -17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.