8665 Florin Rd #67

Florin, CA 95828

$45,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 460 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$445
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $818/mo
• Annual: $9,818/yr
• Cap rate: 28.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.92%
• DSCR: 4.47
• 1% rule: 4.31%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $818 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sierra-Enterprise Elementary (math 19% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,571 statewide, top 61%, 521 students, 55% FRL); Katherine L. Albiani Middle (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 1,307 students, 27% FRL); Pleasant Grove High (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,520 students, 22% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.