14120 Morrison Ct

Dale City, VA 22193

$320,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,380 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$446
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-249/mo
• Annual: $-2,988/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-249 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (25.8% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $237k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#55 in VA, #1,493 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 298 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $320k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Dale City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.