50 Wilbur Rd

New Hartford, NY 13413

$199,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,419/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $543/mo
• Annual: $6,517/yr
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.64%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $543 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#157 in NY, #2,420 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $200k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.8% in New Hartford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.