50 Wilbur Rd · New Hartford, NY 13413

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1950 7,335 sqft lot Est $234k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just when you thought it wasn't out there. .. look again, this charming yet affordable 4 bedroom cape in the New Hartford School District offers a bright atmosphere with an open living room off the eat-in kitchen featuring hardwood floors in the living room as well as the first floor bedrooms. This home also offers 2 spacious bedrooms on the 2nd level and a full wide open basement with great finishing potential to expand your overall living space. The basement also includes a laundry area. You'll enjoy the usefulness of the enclosed porch for that much needed mud room space between the garage and the kitchen, The large back yard is also accessible through the enclosed porch. The great condition, price point and low taxes make this home an advantageous investment rental opportunities as well.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New cabinetry
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• FULLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW CABINETRY
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $543 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.8% in New Hartford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#157 in NY, #2,420 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $200k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.64%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,403
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Lawrence Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,212 (-13%)	7mo	$169,950	$140	66
9 Overbrook Cres	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,414 (+2%)	0mo	$300,000	$212	61
44 Golf Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,181 (-15%)	10mo	$200,000	$169	61
230 Thieme Pl	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,392 (+0%)	9mo	$210,000	$151	60
1 Paulevan Pl	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+4%)	2mo	$225,000	$156	58
236 Thieme Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-4%)	11mo	$275,000	$207	51
5 Park St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	8mo	$185,000	$138	50
4 Overbrook Cres	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,488 (+7%)	7mo	$295,000	$198	49
12 Colonial Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (+7%)	14mo	$265,000	$178	46
124 Richardson Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,568 (+13%)	6mo	$210,000	$134	43
7 Overbrook Cres	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,543 (+11%)	6mo	$240,000	$156	39
237 Thieme Pl	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,202 (-13%)	10mo	$222,600	$185	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,224
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $46,590
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,731

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
77 Clinton St New York Mills, NY	2.0	1.0	777	$1,450	$1.86	44d	7	0.65mi
225 Thieme Pl Utica, NY	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,150	$1.15	44d	1	0.66mi
11 Sanger Ave New Hartford, NY	3.0	2.5	1852	$3,750	$2.02	44d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   status Active
3. 2026-04-03
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-03-30
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2021-09-17
   soldstatus $121,900
6. 2021-09-15
   soldstatus $121,900 Closed Sale or Rented 802-char remark

   Show marketing remark (802 chars)

   Just when you thought it wasn't out there. .. look again, this charming yet affordable 4 bedroom cape in the New Hartford School District offers a bright atmosphere with an open living room off the eat-in kitchen featuring hardwood floors in the living room as well as the first floor bedrooms. This home also offers 2 spacious bedrooms on the 2nd level and a full wide open basement with great finishing potential to expand your overall living space. The basement also includes a laundry area. You'll enjoy the usefulness of the enclosed porch for that much needed mud room space between the garage and the kitchen, The large back yard is also accessible through the enclosed porch. The great condition, price point and low taxes make this home an advantageous investment rental opportunities as well.

7. 2021-05-14
   historical 802-char remark

   Show marketing remark (802 chars)

   Just when you thought it wasn't out there. .. look again, this charming yet affordable 4 bedroom cape in the New Hartford School District offers a bright atmosphere with an open living room off the eat-in kitchen featuring hardwood floors in the living room as well as the first floor bedrooms. This home also offers 2 spacious bedrooms on the 2nd level and a full wide open basement with great finishing potential to expand your overall living space. The basement also includes a laundry area. You'll enjoy the usefulness of the enclosed porch for that much needed mud room space between the garage and the kitchen, The large back yard is also accessible through the enclosed porch. The great condition, price point and low taxes make this home an advantageous investment rental opportunities as well.

8. 2021-05-10
   listed $119,900 802-char remark

   Show marketing remark (802 chars)

   Just when you thought it wasn't out there. .. look again, this charming yet affordable 4 bedroom cape in the New Hartford School District offers a bright atmosphere with an open living room off the eat-in kitchen featuring hardwood floors in the living room as well as the first floor bedrooms. This home also offers 2 spacious bedrooms on the 2nd level and a full wide open basement with great finishing potential to expand your overall living space. The basement also includes a laundry area. You'll enjoy the usefulness of the enclosed porch for that much needed mud room space between the garage and the kitchen, The large back yard is also accessible through the enclosed porch. The great condition, price point and low taxes make this home an advantageous investment rental opportunities as well.

9. 2016-11-22
   soldstatus $85,000
10. 2013-09-04
    listed $79,900
11. 2013-01-29
    soldstatus $51,000
12. 2013-01-28
    soldstatus $51,000
13. 2012-09-06
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,835 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,107 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$271/yr (+$23/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $3,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$848
• After-tax cash flow: $5,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hartford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620370
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,028
• Composite: 61.37/100
• National rank: #769
• State rank: #128 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Hartford

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #2420

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 16,742
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+233.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-04-03 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $199,900 CNYIS
• 2021-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $121,900 Public Records
• 2021-09-15 Sold (MLS) $121,900 CNYIS
• 2021-05-14 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-05-10 Listed $119,900 CNYIS
• 2016-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-04 Listed $79,900 CNYIS
• 2013-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2013-01-28 Sold (MLS) $51,000 MLS PIN
• 2012-09-06 Listed $59,900 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,835 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.