5158 Orange Grove Rd

Gosport, IN 47433

$104,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 594 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $819/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $-42/mo
• Annual: $-506/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-506/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#133 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Spencer-Owen Community Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #155 of 301 in IN (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Owen County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.