5158 Orange Grove Rd · Gosport, IN 47433

$104,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 594 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1940 3,223 sqft lot $177/sqft · 27% above area Est $124k · 15% under $60/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

You can't go wrong with this little retreat on Lake Hollybrook in Gosport, IN! This adorable 894 sq ft home comes completely furnished! This home consists of two bedrooms one is furnished with 2 twin beds, book case, and electric room heater. The second one is furnished with a queen bed including headboard and footboard, night stand, and lamp. The living room has a sliding door to back deck, ceiling fan, sofa with dual recliners, leather love seat, rocker recliner, small and large book cases, 3 floor lamps, and a TV. The kitchen includes a buffet, electric stove, refrigerator, electric dryer, microwave, bottled water cooler, small electric heater, and a TV. In the dining area you get a buffet and table with 4 chairs. The bathroom has a single sink, toilet, and shower only. The home has electric baseboard heat, 3 window AC units, and a small electric wall-mounted heat in the living room. Natural gas is available. Private wood dock at the house and private Trex dock at the clubhouse. Included will be 2 paddle boats and a kayak. HOA is $60 a month. This home has been loved and well maintained with a new roof in 2023, well with new pump in 2024, and the septic pumped every year.

Key facts

• Furnished home
• Private trex dock
• Kayak

Tags

• FURNISHED HOME
• PRIVATE WOOD DOCK
• PRIVATE TREX DOCK
• 2 PADDLE BOATS
• KAYAK
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-506/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#133 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Spencer-Owen Community Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #155 of 301 in IN (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Owen County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,876 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,869
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -15.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5161 Orange Grove Rd	0.03mi	1/1.0 (-1)	606 (+2%)	11mo	$90,000	$149	81
5043 Blue Bird Ln	0.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	540 (-9%)	3mo	$126,500	$234	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $54,436
• Equity at exit: $94,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $162,398
• Equity at exit: $203,798

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47433

• Home prices YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $97,452

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricestatus $104,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   status $114,900 Pending 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $114,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $114,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $114,900 1194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1194 chars)

    You can't go wrong with this little retreat on Lake Hollybrook in Gosport, IN! This adorable 894 sq ft home comes completely furnished! This home consists of two bedrooms one is furnished with 2 twin beds, book case, and electric room heater. The second one is furnished with a queen bed including headboard and footboard, night stand, and lamp. The living room has a sliding door to back deck, ceiling fan, sofa with dual recliners, leather love seat, rocker recliner, small and large book cases, 3 floor lamps, and a TV. The kitchen includes a buffet, electric stove, refrigerator, electric dryer, microwave, bottled water cooler, small electric heater, and a TV. In the dining area you get a buffet and table with 4 chairs. The bathroom has a single sink, toilet, and shower only. The home has electric baseboard heat, 3 window AC units, and a small electric wall-mounted heat in the living room. Natural gas is available. Private wood dock at the house and private Trex dock at the clubhouse. Included will be 2 paddle boats and a kayak. HOA is $60 a month. This home has been loved and well maintained with a new roof in 2023, well with new pump in 2024, and the septic pumped every year.

15. 2026-05-08
    price $119,900 1194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1194 chars)

    You can't go wrong with this little retreat on Lake Hollybrook in Gosport, IN! This adorable 894 sq ft home comes completely furnished! This home consists of two bedrooms one is furnished with 2 twin beds, book case, and electric room heater. The second one is furnished with a queen bed including headboard and footboard, night stand, and lamp. The living room has a sliding door to back deck, ceiling fan, sofa with dual recliners, leather love seat, rocker recliner, small and large book cases, 3 floor lamps, and a TV. The kitchen includes a buffet, electric stove, refrigerator, electric dryer, microwave, bottled water cooler, small electric heater, and a TV. In the dining area you get a buffet and table with 4 chairs. The bathroom has a single sink, toilet, and shower only. The home has electric baseboard heat, 3 window AC units, and a small electric wall-mounted heat in the living room. Natural gas is available. Private wood dock at the house and private Trex dock at the clubhouse. Included will be 2 paddle boats and a kayak. HOA is $60 a month. This home has been loved and well maintained with a new roof in 2023, well with new pump in 2024, and the septic pumped every year.

16. 2026-04-28
    price $124,900 1194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1194 chars)

    You can't go wrong with this little retreat on Lake Hollybrook in Gosport, IN! This adorable 894 sq ft home comes completely furnished! This home consists of two bedrooms one is furnished with 2 twin beds, book case, and electric room heater. The second one is furnished with a queen bed including headboard and footboard, night stand, and lamp. The living room has a sliding door to back deck, ceiling fan, sofa with dual recliners, leather love seat, rocker recliner, small and large book cases, 3 floor lamps, and a TV. The kitchen includes a buffet, electric stove, refrigerator, electric dryer, microwave, bottled water cooler, small electric heater, and a TV. In the dining area you get a buffet and table with 4 chairs. The bathroom has a single sink, toilet, and shower only. The home has electric baseboard heat, 3 window AC units, and a small electric wall-mounted heat in the living room. Natural gas is available. Private wood dock at the house and private Trex dock at the clubhouse. Included will be 2 paddle boats and a kayak. HOA is $60 a month. This home has been loved and well maintained with a new roof in 2023, well with new pump in 2024, and the septic pumped every year.

17. 2026-04-20
    listed $1 Active 1194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1194 chars)

    You can't go wrong with this little retreat on Lake Hollybrook in Gosport, IN! This adorable 894 sq ft home comes completely furnished! This home consists of two bedrooms one is furnished with 2 twin beds, book case, and electric room heater. The second one is furnished with a queen bed including headboard and footboard, night stand, and lamp. The living room has a sliding door to back deck, ceiling fan, sofa with dual recliners, leather love seat, rocker recliner, small and large book cases, 3 floor lamps, and a TV. The kitchen includes a buffet, electric stove, refrigerator, electric dryer, microwave, bottled water cooler, small electric heater, and a TV. In the dining area you get a buffet and table with 4 chairs. The bathroom has a single sink, toilet, and shower only. The home has electric baseboard heat, 3 window AC units, and a small electric wall-mounted heat in the living room. Natural gas is available. Private wood dock at the house and private Trex dock at the clubhouse. Included will be 2 paddle boats and a kayak. HOA is $60 a month. This home has been loved and well maintained with a new roof in 2023, well with new pump in 2024, and the septic pumped every year.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $657 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$235/yr (+$20/mo · 55.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$786
• − Management: −$786
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable loss: −$2,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$562
• After-tax cash flow: $56/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spencer-Owen Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1810950
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,258
• Composite: 33.21/100
• National rank: #5529
• State rank: #155 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gosport

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #6926

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,722

Population outlook (Owen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,045 people
• By 2030: 17,930 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 15,507 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 13,253 · -30.4%
• By 2075: 9,364 · -50.8%
• By 2100: 6,686 · -64.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 12% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Owen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 23.8% · R 74.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+49.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.01%
• Current HPI: 278.3717
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $114,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $119,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $124,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $1 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $422 · +49.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.