888 Lobo Loop

Castroville, TX 78861

$170,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Pending · 290 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $33/mo
• Annual: $401/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($401/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.7% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.