888 Lobo Loop · Castroville, TX 78861

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 290 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.94 ac lot $184/sqft · 29% above area Est $220k · 23% under ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on just under an acre, this 2022 Titan manufactured home has been so gently lived in! Meticulously maintained and conveniently located just north of highway 90 in Las Fincas neighborhood between Hondo and Castroville in Dunlay, TX! Located in the Medina Valley ISD school district, this property has NO CITY TAXES. Inside you will find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and zero carpet! An aerobic septic system is newly installed, retrofitted (secured) to the ground, utilities hooked up and driveway and drainage culvert installed. NO HOA and refrigerator convey! East Medina water and Medina electric. Brand new front and back porch and fence in process!! Enjoy country living in the great Medina County!

Key facts

• No city taxes
• Medina valley isd
• 0.94 acre lot

Tags

• LAS FINCAS NEIGHBORHOOD
• MEDINA VALLEY ISD
• NO CITY TAXES
• AEROBIC SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEWLY INSTALLED UTILITIES
• DRIVEWAY AND DRAINAGE CULVERT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($401/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.7% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $142,147 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,391
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -22.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-25,451
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-19,549
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78861

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,527/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $82	+0% $33	+5% $-15	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-23	+0% $33	+5% $90	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $77	base $33	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Situated on just under an acre, this 2022 Titan manufactured home has been so gently lived in! Meticulously maintained and conveniently located just north of highway 90 in Las Fincas neighborhood between Hondo and Castroville in Dunlay, TX! Located in the Medina Valley ISD school district, this property has NO CITY TAXES. Inside you will find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and zero carpet! An aerobic septic system is newly installed, retrofitted (secured) to the ground, utilities hooked up and driveway and drainage culvert installed. NO HOA and refrigerator convey! East Medina water and Medina electric. Brand new front and back porch and fence in process!! Enjoy country living in the great Medina County!

2. 2026-03-17
   price $170,000 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Situated on just under an acre, this 2022 Titan manufactured home has been so gently lived in! Meticulously maintained and conveniently located just north of highway 90 in Las Fincas neighborhood between Hondo and Castroville in Dunlay, TX! Located in the Medina Valley ISD school district, this property has NO CITY TAXES. Inside you will find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and zero carpet! An aerobic septic system is newly installed, retrofitted (secured) to the ground, utilities hooked up and driveway and drainage culvert installed. NO HOA and refrigerator convey! East Medina water and Medina electric. Brand new front and back porch and fence in process!! Enjoy country living in the great Medina County!

3. 2026-01-16
   price $172,500 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Situated on just under an acre, this 2022 Titan manufactured home has been so gently lived in! Meticulously maintained and conveniently located just north of highway 90 in Las Fincas neighborhood between Hondo and Castroville in Dunlay, TX! Located in the Medina Valley ISD school district, this property has NO CITY TAXES. Inside you will find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and zero carpet! An aerobic septic system is newly installed, retrofitted (secured) to the ground, utilities hooked up and driveway and drainage culvert installed. NO HOA and refrigerator convey! East Medina water and Medina electric. Brand new front and back porch and fence in process!! Enjoy country living in the great Medina County!

4. 2025-12-08
   status Back on Market 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Situated on just under an acre, this 2022 Titan manufactured home has been so gently lived in! Meticulously maintained and conveniently located just north of highway 90 in Las Fincas neighborhood between Hondo and Castroville in Dunlay, TX! Located in the Medina Valley ISD school district, this property has NO CITY TAXES. Inside you will find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and zero carpet! An aerobic septic system is newly installed, retrofitted (secured) to the ground, utilities hooked up and driveway and drainage culvert installed. NO HOA and refrigerator convey! East Medina water and Medina electric. Brand new front and back porch and fence in process!! Enjoy country living in the great Medina County!

5. 2025-11-22
   status Pending 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Situated on just under an acre, this 2022 Titan manufactured home has been so gently lived in! Meticulously maintained and conveniently located just north of highway 90 in Las Fincas neighborhood between Hondo and Castroville in Dunlay, TX! Located in the Medina Valley ISD school district, this property has NO CITY TAXES. Inside you will find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and zero carpet! An aerobic septic system is newly installed, retrofitted (secured) to the ground, utilities hooked up and driveway and drainage culvert installed. NO HOA and refrigerator convey! East Medina water and Medina electric. Brand new front and back porch and fence in process!! Enjoy country living in the great Medina County!

6. 2025-09-17
   price $173,000 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Situated on just under an acre, this 2022 Titan manufactured home has been so gently lived in! Meticulously maintained and conveniently located just north of highway 90 in Las Fincas neighborhood between Hondo and Castroville in Dunlay, TX! Located in the Medina Valley ISD school district, this property has NO CITY TAXES. Inside you will find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and zero carpet! An aerobic septic system is newly installed, retrofitted (secured) to the ground, utilities hooked up and driveway and drainage culvert installed. NO HOA and refrigerator convey! East Medina water and Medina electric. Brand new front and back porch and fence in process!! Enjoy country living in the great Medina County!

7. 2025-07-13
   listed $175,000 New 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Situated on just under an acre, this 2022 Titan manufactured home has been so gently lived in! Meticulously maintained and conveniently located just north of highway 90 in Las Fincas neighborhood between Hondo and Castroville in Dunlay, TX! Located in the Medina Valley ISD school district, this property has NO CITY TAXES. Inside you will find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and zero carpet! An aerobic septic system is newly installed, retrofitted (secured) to the ground, utilities hooked up and driveway and drainage culvert installed. NO HOA and refrigerator convey! East Medina water and Medina electric. Brand new front and back porch and fence in process!! Enjoy country living in the great Medina County!

8. 2025-07-02
   historical
9. 2025-04-23
   listed $179,900 New
10. 2024-06-29
    historical
11. 2024-04-11
    price $185,000
12. 2024-03-07
    price $200,000
13. 2024-02-20
    listed $235,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,527 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,584/yr (+$132/mo · 103.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,527
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$604
• After-tax cash flow: $1,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022 Titan manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through landscaping and painting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves the home's appearance and can attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves the home's appearance and can attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,715

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 19% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 209.0645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $170,000 LERA
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $172,500 LERA
• 2025-12-08 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-11-22 Pending — LERA
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $173,000 LERA
• 2025-07-13 Listed $175,000 LERA
• 2025-07-02 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-04-23 Listed $179,900 LERA
• 2024-06-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $185,000 LERA
• 2024-03-07 Price Changed $200,000 LERA
• 2024-02-20 Listed $235,000 LERA

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,527 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.