16155 US Hwy 45 S

Water Valley, KY 42085

$137,500D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,092/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $28/mo
• Annual: $337/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $38,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($337/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($951 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#309 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Graves County (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #10 of 165 in KY (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Graves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Graves County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $138k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (7.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.