16155 US Hwy 45 S · Water Valley, KY 42085

$137,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1955 0.34 ac lot $102/sqft · at area comps Est $136k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Renovated 3-bed, 1-bath ranch in Water Valley, KY. It offers 1,350 sq ft on 0.34 acres. Built in 1955, it has been fully updated to meet FHA lending standards. Features a fresh kitchen, flooring, and paint. HVAC, electrical, and plumbing systems have been repaired. Exterior landscaping and paint are refreshed. Includes a covered porch and a one-car carport. The property is vacant with immediate access. FHA eligible.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Fresh kitchen
• Renovated ranch

Tags

• RENOVATED RANCH
• FRESH KITCHEN
• HVAC SYSTEMS REPAIRED
• COVERED PORCH
• ONE-CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($337/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#309 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Graves County (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #10 of 165 in KY (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Graves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($951 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.4% local appreciation)).
• Graves County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $138k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,227 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,545
• List price: $137,500
• Delta: 1.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $53,115
• Equity at exit: $98,866

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $152,684
• Equity at exit: $191,139

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42085

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $678/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,057

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,500 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,500 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,500 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,500 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,500 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,500 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $137,500 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $137,500 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,500 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,500 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $147,500 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,500 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,500 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,500 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $147,500 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $147,500 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Renovated 3-bed, 1-bath ranch in Water Valley, KY. It offers 1,350 sq ft on 0.34 acres. Built in 1955, it has been fully updated to meet FHA lending standards. Features a fresh kitchen, flooring, and paint. HVAC, electrical, and plumbing systems have been repaired. Exterior landscaping and paint are refreshed. Includes a covered porch and a one-car carport. The property is vacant with immediate access. FHA eligible.

17. 2026-04-06
    listed $154,900 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Renovated 3-bed, 1-bath ranch in Water Valley, KY. It offers 1,350 sq ft on 0.34 acres. Built in 1955, it has been fully updated to meet FHA lending standards. Features a fresh kitchen, flooring, and paint. HVAC, electrical, and plumbing systems have been repaired. Exterior landscaping and paint are refreshed. Includes a covered porch and a one-car carport. The property is vacant with immediate access. FHA eligible.

18. 2020-10-27
    soldstatus $58,800
19. 2020-10-23
    soldstatus $58,800 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    This three bedroom home sits on a large lot and is located in the county just minutes away from I-69 (Purchase Parkway).

20. 2019-10-31
    listed $61,900 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    This three bedroom home sits on a large lot and is located in the county just minutes away from I-69 (Purchase Parkway).

21. 2006-03-30
    soldstatus $57,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $678 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,182 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$505/yr (+$42/mo · 74.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$678
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable loss: −$2,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$494
• After-tax cash flow: $831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graves County
• NCES district ID: 2102280
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 41.74/100
• National rank: #3400
• State rank: #10 of 165 in KY

Livability — Water Valley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #14730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Valley, KY
• Population (ZIP): 918

Population outlook (Graves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,916 people
• By 2030: 36,587 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 35,580 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 33,906 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 28,957 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 21,552 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Graves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+39.7 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.40%
• Current HPI: 195.6413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+155.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $147,500 WKRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $154,900 WKRMLS
• 2020-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $58,800 Public Records
• 2020-10-23 Sold (MLS) $58,800 WKRMLS
• 2019-10-31 Listed $61,900 WKRMLS
• 2006-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $57,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $678 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.