3235 E Valley Rd

Keuka Park, NY 14418

$129,900D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,149 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,014/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-170/mo
• Annual: $-2,037/yr
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.41%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (22.0% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $100k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Penn Yan Central School District (town): math 57% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #251 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Penn Yan Elementary School (math 56% / reading 55%, grade C, #902 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 519 students, 54% FRL); Penn Yan Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #233 of 729 statewide, top 32%, 328 students, 56% FRL); Penn Yan Academy (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 385 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Yates County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yates County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $130k implies a 271% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.1% in Keuka Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.