3235 E Valley Rd · Keuka Park, NY 14418

$129,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,149 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1980 2.21 ac lot $113/sqft · 60% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION. .LOCATION. .LOCATION! This beautiful 2+ acre parcel with a 1980's seasonal stone cottage complete with wood burning fireplace nestled along side a babbling brook is straight out of a fairy tale! Just needs your sweat equity to really take it to the next level of "WOW"! Minutes to KEUKA LAKE and the shores/camping of Keuka State Park and public boat launch! In the epicenter of all things Finger Lakes Living including but not limited to Wineries & Vineyards, Breweries, Distilleries, Branchport/Penn Yan/Hammondsport village restaurants, shopping and live entertainment, hunting and fishing! Would make a very popular short term rental property! The possibilities a

Key facts

• Babbling brook
• Public boat launch
• 2 acre parcel

Tags

• 2 ACRE PARCEL
• SEASONAL STONE COTTAGE
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BABBLING BROOK
• MINUTES TO KEUKA LAKE
• PUBLIC BOAT LAUNCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Circular driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story; Residential single-family use; Has view; Resale fixer property
• Construction: Frame and stone construction; Block foundation; Metal roof; Existing (year built details indicate existing)
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Partially wooded lot; Level topography; Stream/creek on property (Sugar Creek); Beach, river and water access; Outbuilding(s), shed(s), and mobile home present; Garage(s) and other outbuildings

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen; Solid surface counters; Water heater listed under appliances
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating (see remarks); Heating present
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Galley kitchen; Solid surface counters; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.1% in Keuka Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Penn Yan Central School District (town): math 57% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #251 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Penn Yan Elementary School (math 56% / reading 55%, grade C, #902 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 519 students, 54% FRL); Penn Yan Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #233 of 729 statewide, top 32%, 328 students, 56% FRL); Penn Yan Academy (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 385 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Yates County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yates County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $130k implies a 271% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,920 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.41%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,020
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 60.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $59,998
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $185,303
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14418

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,023/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,228

Max offer price $99,920

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-96	-5% $-133	+0% $-170	+5% $-206	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-210	+0% $-170	+5% $-130	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-137	base $-170	+0.5pp $-203	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1002-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $129,900 Active 1002-char remark
3. 1999-11-24
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,023 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,023
• − Insurance: −$1,447
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$973
• − Management: −$973
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$4,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn Yan Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622740
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $48,067
• Composite: 50.46/100
• National rank: #1860
• State rank: #251 of 590 in NY

Livability — Keuka Park

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #12202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,147

Population outlook (Yates County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,773 people
• By 2030: 22,867 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 20,750 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 18,917 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 15,090 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 11,428 · -51.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Chinese 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Yates

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+21.9 2012: R+3.0 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.91%
• Current HPI: 373.9993
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+271.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 1999-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,023 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.