158 Saddlebrook Ln #319

Florence, KY 41042

$175,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Built 2001 · Condo · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,643/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$290
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,123/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (6.1% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ockerman Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 777 students, 59% FRL); Rector A. Jones Middle School (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #206 of 217 statewide, top 95%, 679 students, 74% FRL); Boone County High School (math 21% / reading 32%, grade F, #174 of 254 statewide, top 69%, 1,279 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 30% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Boone County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $141k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.