158 Saddlebrook Ln #319 · Florence, KY 41042

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Condo public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2001 $290/mo HOA · 18% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac this great, first floor condo, has no steps and open floor plan. High ceilings and large living and dining room space. 2 bedrooms with private bathrooms, patio off of living room and 1-car detached garage! 1 assigned parking spot conveys as well! Please submit all offers by 7pm tonight, October 21st.

Key facts

• Counter bar
• Clubhouse
• Community amenities

Tags

• OPEN PLAN
• COUNTER BAR
• PRIVATE BATHS
• COVERED PATIO
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: existing structure
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $290; Association covers association fees and snow removal; Community amenities: landscaping, year-round lake, playground, pool, clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer and water available; Paved road access; Vinyl window frames
• Home design: One-level house; Condominium; Entry level 1
• Construction: Built in 2001; Brick and vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (19 x 12); Second bedroom (14 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Pantry; Open floorplan; Chandelier; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Multi-panel doors; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ockerman Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 777 students, 59% FRL); Rector A. Jones Middle School (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #206 of 217 statewide, top 95%, 679 students, 74% FRL); Boone County High School (math 21% / reading 32%, grade F, #174 of 254 statewide, top 69%, 1,279 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 30% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Boone County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $141k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $158,472 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-33,483
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-33,389
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41042

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,330/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$290
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,761

Max offer price $158,472

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7500 Carole Ln Florence, KY	2.0	1.0	510	$1,200	$2.35	2d	5	0.36mi
780 Weaver Rd Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1155	$2,300	$1.99	1d	18	0.58mi
996 Trellises Dr Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,554	$1.69	1d	27	0.59mi
7536 Hillcrest Dr Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,479	$1.59	1d	17	0.84mi
1000 Tamarack Cir Florence, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$1,434	$1.74	2d	6	0.89mi
8000 Preakness Dr Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$1,585	$1.43	1d	30	1.05mi
550 Mount Zion Rd Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,469	$1.53	1d	20	1.12mi
7650 Ewing Blvd Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,455	$1.59	3d	6	1.20mi
101 Pinehurst Dr Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$1,399	$1.72	23d	6	1.31mi
239 Landon Ct Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1228	$2,222	$1.81	1d	11	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $290 · $3,480/yr
• Likely covers: parking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $175,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-05-01
   price $175,000
9. 2026-04-10
   listed $180,000 Active
10. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus $141,000
11. 2021-11-24
    soldstatus $141,000 Closed 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac this great, first floor condo, has no steps and open floor plan. High ceilings and large living and dining room space. 2 bedrooms with private bathrooms, patio off of living room and 1-car detached garage! 1 assigned parking spot conveys as well! Please submit all offers by 7pm tonight, October 21st.

12. 2021-10-22
    status Pending 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac this great, first floor condo, has no steps and open floor plan. High ceilings and large living and dining room space. 2 bedrooms with private bathrooms, patio off of living room and 1-car detached garage! 1 assigned parking spot conveys as well! Please submit all offers by 7pm tonight, October 21st.

13. 2021-10-20
    listed $127,500 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac this great, first floor condo, has no steps and open floor plan. High ceilings and large living and dining room space. 2 bedrooms with private bathrooms, patio off of living room and 1-car detached garage! 1 assigned parking spot conveys as well! Please submit all offers by 7pm tonight, October 21st.

14. 2017-10-19
    soldstatus $98,500
15. 2017-10-06
    soldstatus $98,500 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    PENDING...... ..1 car detached garage..Lovely, well maintained open floorplan condo with 9' ceilings, 2 bedrooms with private baths, equipped kitchen, tile floors, walk out to shaded covered patio. Large living and dining room with loads of natural light.....at the end of the community...close to everything , yet away from it all~ A pleasure to show! Garage #112

16. 2017-04-13
    listed $99,500 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    PENDING...... ..1 car detached garage..Lovely, well maintained open floorplan condo with 9' ceilings, 2 bedrooms with private baths, equipped kitchen, tile floors, walk out to shaded covered patio. Large living and dining room with loads of natural light.....at the end of the community...close to everything , yet away from it all~ A pleasure to show! Garage #112

17. 2007-05-21
    soldstatus $99,400
18. 2007-05-21
    soldstatus $99,400
19. 2007-03-02
    listed $96,900
20. 2007-03-01
    historical
21. 2006-09-01
    listed $99,900
22. 2001-11-28
    soldstatus $89,150
23. 2001-11-28
    soldstatus $89,150
24. 2001-10-25
    listed $89,150
25. 2001-09-06
    listed $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,505 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,330
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,577
• − Management: −$1,577
• − HOA: −$3,480
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$964
• After-tax cash flow: $-158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Florence

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #2763

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, KY
• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 57,634
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 57,634
• Household income: $79,712
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1397.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.07%
• Current HPI: 206.3259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+107.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $175,000 NKMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $180,000 NKMLS
• 2021-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $141,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-24 Sold (MLS) $141,000 NKMLS
• 2021-10-22 Pending — NKMLS
• 2021-10-20 Listed $127,500 NKMLS
• 2017-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 2017-10-06 Sold (MLS) $98,500 NKMLS
• 2017-04-13 Listed $99,500 NKMLS
• 2007-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $99,400 Public Records
• 2007-05-21 Sold (MLS) $99,400 NKMLS
• 2007-03-02 Listed $96,900 NKMLS
• 2007-03-01 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2006-09-01 Listed $99,900 NKMLS
• 2001-11-28 Sold (MLS) $89,150 NKMLS
• 2001-11-28 Sold (MLS) $89,150 NKMLS
• 2001-10-25 Listed $89,150 NKMLS
• 2001-09-06 Listed $84,500 NKMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,330 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.