62 Watson Hollow Rd

Shokan, NY 12494

$249,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 308 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,173/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $41/mo
• Annual: $486/yr
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($486/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.8% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.