62 Watson Hollow Rd · Shokan, NY 12494

$249,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1930 1.40 ac lot $445/sqft · 21% above area Est $403k · 38% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vintage 3-Season Cottage on the Bushkill Creek! Brimming with charm and potential, this beloved vintage cottage has been in the same family for over 50 years. Set on 1.4 park-like acres along the scenic Bushkill Creek, it offers a peaceful retreat with a touch of nostalgia. The large eat-in kitchen serves as a versatile gathering space, perfect for casual meals or creative projects. While the home has just one bedroom, several additional rooms can easily accommodate extra guests. A lovely adjoining deck invites outdoor entertaining with the sound of the creek as your backdrop. Enjoy the rural character while being close to it all--just minutes to the Ashokan Reservoir, Ashokan Rail Trail, prime hiking and fishing spots, and the restaurants, shops, and entertainment of Phoenicia and Woodstock. Whether you're seeking a seasonal getaway, a restoration project, or a cozy country escape, this property offers endless possibilities. Sold fully furnished. Permit for wood-burning stove will be the responsibility of the buyer. PLEASE NOTE: this is a 3-season cottage because it is not insulated and no heating system.

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• Fully furnished
• Adjoining deck

Tags

• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• ADJOINING DECK
• CLOSE TO ASHOKAN RESERVOIR
• CLOSE TO ASHOKAN RAIL TRAIL
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS AND SHOPS
• FULLY FURNISHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($486/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.8% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,321 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,563
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -38.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Watson Hollow Rd	0.05mi	1/1.0	604 (+8%)	11mo	$260,000	$430	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $21,737
• Equity at exit: $100,423

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $87,775
• Equity at exit: $146,329

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12494

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,404/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,122

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 305 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 298 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 297 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 296 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 288 DOM
16. 2025-08-25
    price $249,000 1123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1123 chars)

    Vintage 3-Season Cottage on the Bushkill Creek! Brimming with charm and potential, this beloved vintage cottage has been in the same family for over 50 years. Set on 1.4 park-like acres along the scenic Bushkill Creek, it offers a peaceful retreat with a touch of nostalgia. The large eat-in kitchen serves as a versatile gathering space, perfect for casual meals or creative projects. While the home has just one bedroom, several additional rooms can easily accommodate extra guests. A lovely adjoining deck invites outdoor entertaining with the sound of the creek as your backdrop. Enjoy the rural character while being close to it all--just minutes to the Ashokan Reservoir, Ashokan Rail Trail, prime hiking and fishing spots, and the restaurants, shops, and entertainment of Phoenicia and Woodstock. Whether you're seeking a seasonal getaway, a restoration project, or a cozy country escape, this property offers endless possibilities. Sold fully furnished. Permit for wood-burning stove will be the responsibility of the buyer. PLEASE NOTE: this is a 3-season cottage because it is not insulated and no heating system.

17. 2025-08-15
    listed $285,000 Active 1123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1123 chars)

    Vintage 3-Season Cottage on the Bushkill Creek! Brimming with charm and potential, this beloved vintage cottage has been in the same family for over 50 years. Set on 1.4 park-like acres along the scenic Bushkill Creek, it offers a peaceful retreat with a touch of nostalgia. The large eat-in kitchen serves as a versatile gathering space, perfect for casual meals or creative projects. While the home has just one bedroom, several additional rooms can easily accommodate extra guests. A lovely adjoining deck invites outdoor entertaining with the sound of the creek as your backdrop. Enjoy the rural character while being close to it all--just minutes to the Ashokan Reservoir, Ashokan Rail Trail, prime hiking and fishing spots, and the restaurants, shops, and entertainment of Phoenicia and Woodstock. Whether you're seeking a seasonal getaway, a restoration project, or a cozy country escape, this property offers endless possibilities. Sold fully furnished. Permit for wood-burning stove will be the responsibility of the buyer. PLEASE NOTE: this is a 3-season cottage because it is not insulated and no heating system.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,404 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,306 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: +$902/yr (+$75/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,404
• − Insurance: −$2,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$896
• After-tax cash flow: $1,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onteora Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621840
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,997
• Composite: 52.17/100
• National rank: #3482
• State rank: #288 of 755 in NY

Livability — Shokan

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #888
• US rank: #17222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,359
• Population (ZIP): 876

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Slovak 5% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Current HPI: 331.7763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $249,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $285,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,404 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.