1309 Athena Dr

Portland, TX 78374

$245,499D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,046/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,287
• Tax + insurance: −$409
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-961/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $68,740

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-961/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#36 in TX, #1,740 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gregory-Portland ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #314 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.