156 Lamb Hill Rd

Warrensburg, NY 12824

$417,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,838 sqft · Built 1931 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,387/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,187
• Tax + insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$711
• Net cashflow: $-126/mo
• Annual: $-1,509/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $116,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $417k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $395k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($411k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $339k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#823 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bolton Central School District (rural): math 75% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #110 of 755 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.