156 Lamb Hill Rd · Warrensburg, NY 12824

$417,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1931 5.11 ac lot $227/sqft · 14% below area Est $484k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bolton Landing Classic Farm Home on quiet 5 acre corner lot with spacious grounds for relaxing and recharging your life; recent kitchen updates include all new appliances, cabinets and granite counters; bright living room with coffered ceiling and oak floors; spacious 1st level Primary Bedroom; new 2nd level full bath; expansive rear deck provides great space for entertaining or privacy; Generac Whole House Generator for your peace of mind! As the ''crow flies'' this property is just 3miles from the shores of Lake George, 16 miles from the slopes of Gore Mountain and just steps out your door to a snowmobile trail system!

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• 5 peaceful acres
• Granite countertops

Tags

• 5 PEACEFUL ACRES
• UPDATED FARMHOUSE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway; Total of 10 parking spaces
• Utilities: Generator for electric; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area approximately 1,838; Wood siding
• Construction: Shingle roof; Asbestos shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Garden; Shed(s); Level, private, wooded and landscaped lot; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (located on 2nd level); One half bathroom (located on 1st level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Paddle fan; Vaulted ceilings; Built-in features; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $417k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $395k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $339k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#823 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bolton Central School District (rural): math 75% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #110 of 755 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($411k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $338,705 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $483,565
• List price: $417,000
• Delta: -13.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $219,104
• Equity at exit: $375,667

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $651,525
• Equity at exit: $810,139

Cash invested: $116,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12824

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,187
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,291/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$711
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,546

Max offer price $394,791

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,250
• Closing costs: $12,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $417,000 Active 1826-char remark
2. 2025-02-28
   soldstatus $402,000 Closed 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Bolton Landing Classic Farm Home on quiet 5 acre corner lot with spacious grounds for relaxing and recharging your life; recent kitchen updates include all new appliances, cabinets and granite counters; bright living room with coffered ceiling and oak floors; spacious 1st level Primary Bedroom; new 2nd level full bath; expansive rear deck provides great space for entertaining or privacy; Generac Whole House Generator for your peace of mind! As the ''crow flies'' this property is just 3miles from the shores of Lake George, 16 miles from the slopes of Gore Mountain and just steps out your door to a snowmobile trail system!

3. 2025-02-28
   soldstatus $402,000

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Bolton Landing Classic Farm Home on quiet 5 acre corner lot with spacious grounds for relaxing and recharging your life; recent kitchen updates include all new appliances, cabinets and granite counters; bright living room with coffered ceiling and oak floors; spacious 1st level Primary Bedroom; new 2nd level full bath; expansive rear deck provides great space for entertaining or privacy; Generac Whole House Generator for your peace of mind! As the ''crow flies'' this property is just 3miles from the shores of Lake George, 16 miles from the slopes of Gore Mountain and just steps out your door to a snowmobile trail system!

4. 2025-02-12
   status Pending 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Bolton Landing Classic Farm Home on quiet 5 acre corner lot with spacious grounds for relaxing and recharging your life; recent kitchen updates include all new appliances, cabinets and granite counters; bright living room with coffered ceiling and oak floors; spacious 1st level Primary Bedroom; new 2nd level full bath; expansive rear deck provides great space for entertaining or privacy; Generac Whole House Generator for your peace of mind! As the ''crow flies'' this property is just 3miles from the shores of Lake George, 16 miles from the slopes of Gore Mountain and just steps out your door to a snowmobile trail system!

5. 2025-01-14
   status Active 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Bolton Landing Classic Farm Home on quiet 5 acre corner lot with spacious grounds for relaxing and recharging your life; recent kitchen updates include all new appliances, cabinets and granite counters; bright living room with coffered ceiling and oak floors; spacious 1st level Primary Bedroom; new 2nd level full bath; expansive rear deck provides great space for entertaining or privacy; Generac Whole House Generator for your peace of mind! As the ''crow flies'' this property is just 3miles from the shores of Lake George, 16 miles from the slopes of Gore Mountain and just steps out your door to a snowmobile trail system!

6. 2025-01-11
   historical Contingent 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Bolton Landing Classic Farm Home on quiet 5 acre corner lot with spacious grounds for relaxing and recharging your life; recent kitchen updates include all new appliances, cabinets and granite counters; bright living room with coffered ceiling and oak floors; spacious 1st level Primary Bedroom; new 2nd level full bath; expansive rear deck provides great space for entertaining or privacy; Generac Whole House Generator for your peace of mind! As the ''crow flies'' this property is just 3miles from the shores of Lake George, 16 miles from the slopes of Gore Mountain and just steps out your door to a snowmobile trail system!

7. 2024-07-16
   price $417,500 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Bolton Landing Classic Farm Home on quiet 5 acre corner lot with spacious grounds for relaxing and recharging your life; recent kitchen updates include all new appliances, cabinets and granite counters; bright living room with coffered ceiling and oak floors; spacious 1st level Primary Bedroom; new 2nd level full bath; expansive rear deck provides great space for entertaining or privacy; Generac Whole House Generator for your peace of mind! As the ''crow flies'' this property is just 3miles from the shores of Lake George, 16 miles from the slopes of Gore Mountain and just steps out your door to a snowmobile trail system!

8. 2024-06-03
   listed $429,000 Active 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Bolton Landing Classic Farm Home on quiet 5 acre corner lot with spacious grounds for relaxing and recharging your life; recent kitchen updates include all new appliances, cabinets and granite counters; bright living room with coffered ceiling and oak floors; spacious 1st level Primary Bedroom; new 2nd level full bath; expansive rear deck provides great space for entertaining or privacy; Generac Whole House Generator for your peace of mind! As the ''crow flies'' this property is just 3miles from the shores of Lake George, 16 miles from the slopes of Gore Mountain and just steps out your door to a snowmobile trail system!

9. 2024-02-01
   historical
10. 2023-10-25
    price $420,000
11. 2023-09-25
    listed $425,000 Active
12. 2022-10-12
    historical
13. 2022-09-08
    listed $364,500 Active
14. 2021-10-21
    soldstatus $275,000
15. 2021-10-15
    soldstatus $275,000 Closed (Final Sale)
16. 2021-09-15
    status Pend (Under Cntr)
17. 2021-08-02
    listed $299,900 New
18. 2014-10-17
    soldstatus $150,500
19. 1998-01-23
    soldstatus $57,280

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,291 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,169 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: +$878/yr (+$73/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,358
• − Property taxes: −$5,291
• − Insurance: −$2,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,252
• − Management: −$3,252
• − Depreciation: −$12,131
• Taxable loss: −$8,724
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,094
• After-tax cash flow: $585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605010
• Math proficiency: 75% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,568
• Composite: 67.0/100
• National rank: #863
• State rank: #110 of 755 in NY

Livability — Warrensburg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #823
• US rank: #15925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,022

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 6% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.29%
• Current HPI: 541.3635
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+628.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $417,000 Global MLS
• 2025-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $402,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-28 Sold (MLS) $402,000 Global MLS
• 2025-02-12 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-01-14 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-01-11 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $417,500 Global MLS
• 2024-06-03 Listed $429,000 Global MLS
• 2024-02-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2023-10-25 Price Changed $420,000 Global MLS
• 2023-09-25 Listed $425,000 Global MLS
• 2022-10-12 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-09-08 Listed $364,500 Global MLS
• 2021-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-15 Sold (MLS) $275,000 Global MLS
• 2021-09-15 Pending — Global MLS
• 2021-08-02 Listed $299,900 Global MLS
• 2014-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $150,500 Public Records
• 1998-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $57,280 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,291 · +54.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.