35 Rockaway Dr

Sound Beach, NY 11789

$289,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,709/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$449
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $176/mo
• Annual: $2,106/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.60%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (6.3% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#458 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Miller Place Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #116 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Andrew Muller Primary School (468 students, 14% FRL); North Country Road School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 534 students, 15% FRL); Miller Place High School (math 96% / reading 72%, grade A, #404 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 820 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Sound Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.