28983 County Road 56.5

Aguilar, CO 81020

$154,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 376 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $81/yr
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($81/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (25.6% below list).
• It's been on market 376 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#405 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aguilar Reorganized School District No. 6 (rural): math 0% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #170 of 176 in CO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Aguilar Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #606 of 966 statewide, top 65%, 65 students, 82% FRL); Aguilar Junior-Senior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #266 of 381 statewide, top 79%, 54 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 59% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 10% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Aguilar Reorganized School District No. 6 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Las Animas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Las Animas County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $154k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 376 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.